After President Trump threatened for more than a year to withdraw from NAFTA, auto-manufacturing states breathed a sigh of relief when he announced a renegotiated trade agreement earlier this month with Canada and Mexico.
A U.S. withdrawal from the 1994 pact would have resulted in the reimposition of tariffs on specific goods between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The impact would have been felt most acutely by states such as Michigan that do a lot of business with the two countries.
States haven't been very successful at taxing drug companies to help pay for the opioid crisis. But that won’t stop them from trying again next year.
Minnesota State Rep. Dave Baker, a Republican who sponsored a failed “penny a pill” bill during this year's session, has said that he plans on a different focus in 2019: pharmaceutical licensing reform. Liquor stores and bars pay thousands of dollars each year for the privilege of selling alcohol, Baker noted this week at a conference on opioids in Minneapolis, but drug companies only pay a few hundred dollars in licensing fees.
They may be late, but both Maine and New Jersey finally have budgets for fiscal 2018 after shutting down their respective governments for three days.
Early Tuesday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie signed a $34.7 billion budget agreement and ended a shutdown. That same day, Maine’s shutdown wrapped up when Gov. Paul LePage signed a $7.1 billion budget. The deal eliminated a lodging tax increase opposed by LePage in exchange for allocating an additional $162 million to public education.
Delaware also reached a budget deal early Sunday morning. Gov. John Carney signed a $4.1 billion budget that preserved funding for nonprofits, public health programs and schools by raising taxes on real estate transfers, tobacco and alcohol.
The Takeaway: A whopping 11 states started their fiscal 2018 this month without a budget deal, an unusually high number that reflects the growing divisiveness of tax and fiscal policy. Be it dealing with budget deficits or juggling a demand to bring funding for services back to pre-recession levels, more and more of these conflicts are resulting in statehouse stalemates.
In the face of a politically and financially uncertain fiscal 2018, states are hunkering down, pulling back on spending increases and beefing up rainy day funds.
General fund revenues for fiscal 2017 are coming in below forecasts in 33 states, according to a new survey by the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO). That’s the highest number since the recession, and it also marks the second straight year that more states have failed to meet projected revenues than exceeded them. As a result, it’s increasingly likely that more states will be forced to make spending cuts (23 have already reported doing so).
The survey also finds that thanks to states’ “thin margins,” spending for fiscal 2018 will tick up by a mere 1 percent -- the lowest growth rate since 2010, when states were in the midst of dealing with the recession. Most of those spending increases will be targeted toward education, where many states are still trying to make up for cuts following the recession, and Medicaid.
Despite slow revenue growth -- or perhaps because of it -- governors and legislatures in many places are prioritizing saving money for the next economic downturn. After a slight dip in 2017, rainy day fund balances are expected to hit the highest total ever at more than $53 billion across 48 states. (Georgia and Oklahoma were not able to provide data.)
Should geography determine a child's chances for success? A new look at how much states spend per kid indicates that might be the case.
An analysis by the Urban Institute found that states that spend more per child tend to have better outcomes when taking public education, health and social services into account. At the two ends of the spectrum, Vermont spends nearly three times as much annually on children as Utah. The national average is $7,900 per child. A total of 14 states spend less than $7,000 per child and nine spend more than $10,000 each year.
Rainy day savings deposits appear to be plateauing.
After six straight years of squirreling away money, budgeted figures for fiscal 2017 show a slight dip in rainy day fund balances across the 50 states. States now have a median 4.9 percent of annual expenditures saved for the fiscal year, down from 5.1 percent the previous year.
What's more, four states -- Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey and North Dakota -- now show no budget reserve funds, up from two states last year. The overall shift is a signal that tighter financial times could be ahead for states as a whole.
The findings are based on Governing's analysis of projected 2017 budget data from the National Association of State Budget Officers. Given that roughly half of states are now expecting budget shortfalls for 2017, budget reserve balances could dip more than projected.
Weak revenues are causing the most state budget shortfalls since the Great Recession.
According to the National Association of State Budget Officers’ (NASBO) annual state spending survey, half of all states saw revenues come in lower than budgeted in fiscal 2016 and nearly as many (24) are seeing those weak revenue conditions carry into fiscal 2017, which ends in summer 2017 for most states. It marks the highest number of states falling short since 36 budgets missed their mark in 2010.
As a result, 19 states made mid-year budget cuts in 2016, totaling $2.8 billion. That number of states “is historically high outside of a recessionary period,” according to the report.
The revenue slowdown is caused mainly by slow income tax growth, even slower sales tax growth and an outright decline in corporate tax revenue
The Great Recession was uniquely devastating for states and localities because it hit all three major tax revenue sources: income, sales and property. It was a scenario that few, if any governments, were really prepared to absorb. As a result, governments were forced to make massive budget cuts.
Now, as the recovery trudges on longer than most, a growing number of states are making sure they aren’t blindsided by the next downturn.
Enter stress testing. The idea, which was borrowed from the U.S. Federal Reserve, essentially throws different economic scenarios at a state budget to see how revenues would be impacted.
“We’re in an environment where everyone is starting to think about the next downturn and what that’s going to look like,” said Emily Raimes, a Moody’s Investors Service analyst. “A stress test is a tool for states to think about what types of programs they should commit to and how much to save now.”
As state lawmakers begin preparing for their fiscal 2018 budgets, their biggest challenge is in the unknown. With Donald Trump’s election, the future for key state and local funding is almost anybody’s guess.
With Trump in the White House next year, Stan Collender, author of The Guide to The Federal Budget, predicts that a Republican-controlled Congress will move quickly on making major changes before the 2018 midterm elections. But after this unpredictable election, few are willing to predict what exactly those changes will be. All we know now is what’s on the table.
Declining tax revenues has driven a slowdown in state spending, according to a new report from the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO).
In fiscal 2016, state spending grew by an estimated 4 percent. That growth rate is significantly slower than the relatively sharp increase of 6.9 percent in fiscal 2015, which also marked a 10-year high in spending growth.
Spending from the general fund grew 3.1 percent from fiscal 2015, which is significantly lower than increases in prior years and is a full percentage point lower than NASBO predicted for 2016 spending. The shrinkage was largely driven by declines in personal income and sales tax revenue growth.
In total, general fund revenues increased just 1.8 percent in 2016, compared with 4.8 percent the year before. Corporate income taxes -- a smaller portion of states’ general revenues -- saw a significant decline of 5.8 percent.
Want to grow your economy? Close the gender gap.
That’s the advice from a new report that says states and cities could add up to $4.3 trillion to their annual economic output simply by focusing on policies that create a more equitable environment for women in the workforce.
The report, produced by the think tank McKinsey Global Institute, looked at levels of gender equality in measurable areas like political representation; workforce participation and leadership; educational attainment and teenage pregnancy rates. Overall, researchers found high gender inequality in many states and in some of the top 50 largest metropolitan areas.
"The real opportunity here is for a state to say, 'How could we do better? What are the levers that we can pull to get motivated and begin to address this?'" said Vivian Riefberg, one of the report's authors.
Congress this week has reached an agreement on a rescue bill for Puerto Rico. The troubled territory is set to default for a third time over the past year on a debt payment due today. The legislation, which was signed by President Obama Thursday, follows a long-running debate about whether Congress should intervene at all.
The bill, called the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act, or PROMESA, passed the House of Representatives earlier this month and the Senate on Wednesday. The legislation would allow the island a path to restructure its more than $70 billion in debt while installing a financial control board to govern its finances. It was modeled after similar legislation for Washington, D.C., whose finances were also subject to a control board two decades ago.
The Takeaway: The legislation won’t stop Puerto Rico from defaulting on its $2 billion debt payment Friday. But the fact that it now has a path to solvency -- however murky and long -- delivers a message of certainty to municipal market investors. To be sure, investors will take a hit and Puerto Rico’s officials will lose immediate control of the island’s financial future. But the process will be far more orderly than it has been in the past year or so. Litigation promised “to be endless and to consume scarce resources of the beleaguered commonwealth’s government," former New York Lt. Gov. Richard Ravitch pointed out in an op-ed this week
This year was one of milestones for state budgets, but the upward swings of 2016 will likely be dampened in the years ahead.
It took almost a decade, but total state spending and revenues finally surpassed pre-recession peaks this year, according to a new survey from the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO). Yet more than two dozen states haven’t reached that milestone, a sign of the recovery’s uneven progress after the worst economic collapse in more than a generation.
While fiscal 2016 also marked the highest annual growth -- 5.5 percent -- for total state spending in nearly a decade, it was primarily driven by significant one-time spending increases and technical adjustments in several large states, including New York, Ohio and Texas. The median spending growth rate across the 50 states was 3.8 percent, which is lower than last year’s but slightly ahead of expectations a year ago.
Looking ahead, spending is projected to slow down even more, to 2.5 percent next fiscal year (which begins July 1 for most states). Revenues are also projected to slow.
One of states' top spending items is education. When lawmakers can’t agree on a budget -- or they decide to make severe cuts -- higher education often gets hurt. Sometimes, even K-12 spending takes a hit. In Illinois and Pennsylvania, ongoing stalemates over the current fiscal year’s budget may lead to school closures. In Louisiana, potential major cuts have students protesting.
Let’s start in Illinois, where three state universities have taken severe hits. Last Friday, Chicago State University sent layoff notices to all 900 of its employees. The school is making plans to end its semester early unless the state makes good on funding promises. That alarming news came after Western Illinois University announced it would cut $20 million from its budget over the next two years, while laying off 100 employees. Southern Illinois University is contemplating $40 million in cuts and has already started closing programs, such as men’s tennis and women’s golf. Most recently, Eastern Illinois University, which saw its credit rating downgraded to junk status last month, laid off nearly 200 employees, although the school president offered assurances that the university was not closing.
Every budget is about winners and losers. In that regard, President Obama’s final budget is a $4 trillion mixed bag for states and localities.
Many of his proposed initiatives would benefit urban areas, which won him praise from some but criticism from others who say such help would come at the expense of rural America.
Looking at the big picture, the proposed budget maintains the agreement reached last year that helped states and localities by lifting automatic cuts on discretionary spending, which are known as sequestration cuts. The budget also outlines ambitious spending proposals in health care and infrastructure -- two key financial pressure points for state and local governments.
The financial outlook for states and localities over the next few years, simply put, isn’t as rosy as it’s been for the past couple of years. (If you even want to call the last couple of years rosy.)
Last week, we reported that states other than oil-dependent ones are dealing with mid-year spending cuts. Looking ahead, state budget forecasters are expecting tepid sales and income tax revenue growth for both 2016 and 2017. If spending continues to grow faster than revenues, the next few years could be challenging for government budgets.
“States still haven’t made up for a lot of the cutting that got done in the last six to eight years,” said Bill Pound, the executive director of the National Conference of State Legislatures. In particular, states are still trying to restore education funding while implementing higher standards, he said.
Oil prices are now at their lowest level in 12 years -- below $30 a barrel. That's great news for consumers, but not for the states that depend on oil tax revenues.
The falling price of oil, which has declined more than 60 percent since June 2014, has some states scrambling. With no end in sight, states that are more dependent on the industry simply can't replace the revenue by withdrawing from their substantial rainy day funds.
Oil, natural gas and mining account for about 10 percent or more of gross domestic product in eight states: Alaska, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming. Last year, total tax revenues in the eight states declined by 3.2 percent, according to a new analysis by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government. In contrast, the remaining 42 states reported a 6.5 percent increase in total tax revenues.
Although most of these states tend to budget conservatively, the good years for oil had an impact on their finances.
Illinois is one of two states that still has no budget this year. How does it keep running? Partly, by letting its bills stack up.
Illinois law lets the state defer paying bills until the following fiscal year -- a tool the state has used liberally for years. Because of that, the state’s unpaid bills have now climbed to a total of $6.6 billion, a backlog equal to 19 percent of what the state spends from its general fund. “If the state fails to address its structural imbalance for subsequent years,” warned Moody's Investors Service, “the payment backlog will swell to $25 billion, or 64 percent of expenditures” over the next three years.
